Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.035162 0.040143 0.045616 0.052084 0.059528 0.067834 0.077821
2024-12-22 0.027091 0.033697 0.041635 0.051905 0.064883 0.080793 0.101864
2024-12-29 0.023502 0.030974 0.040511 0.053637 0.071328 0.094478 0.127286
2025-01-05 0.019758 0.027264 0.037319 0.051862 0.072509 0.100996 0.143665
2025-01-12 0.017219 0.024718 0.035189 0.051000 0.074487 0.108426 0.161799
2025-01-19 0.014884 0.022115 0.032586 0.049005 0.074388 0.112601 0.175360
2025-01-26 0.013972 0.021452 0.032662 0.050887 0.080161 0.126006 0.204524
2025-02-02 0.013180 0.020856 0.032734 0.052701 0.085938 0.139944 0.236155
2025-02-09 0.012480 0.020311 0.032796 0.054452 0.091727 0.154440 0.270410
2025-02-16 0.011457 0.019127 0.031689 0.054110 0.093900 0.163008 0.295262
2025-02-23 0.010681 0.018270 0.031025 0.054421 0.097178 0.173757 0.325255
2025-03-02 0.009811 0.017163 0.029818 0.053629 0.098351 0.180778 0.349000
2025-03-09 0.009315 0.016685 0.029693 0.054832 0.103438 0.195790 0.390618
2025-03-16 0.008608 0.015760 0.028683 0.054292 0.105169 0.204644 0.421163
2025-03-23 0.008295 0.015529 0.028916 0.056131 0.111718 0.223637 0.475205
2025-03-30 0.007545 0.014400 0.027350 0.054267 0.110592 0.226937 0.495931
2025-04-06 0.006986 0.013590 0.026320 0.053364 0.111323 0.234119 0.526093
2025-04-13 0.006351 0.012571 0.024788 0.051271 0.109294 0.235153 0.542304
2025-04-20 0.006200 0.012513 0.025173 0.053245 0.116291 0.256705 0.609590
2025-04-27 0.006048 0.012437 0.025513 0.055148 0.123330 0.279153 0.682185
2025-05-04 0.005896 0.012347 0.025811 0.056985 0.130411 0.302507 0.760359
2025-05-11 0.005561 0.011836 0.025166 0.056627 0.132313 0.313789 0.809073
2025-05-18 0.005308 0.011483 0.024833 0.056952 0.135882 0.329518 0.871771